For her half, Harris has given Chinese language officers little recent content material to scrutinise as they scour for any shades of distinction which may exist between her and Biden. She has had little to say on China-related points on the marketing campaign path past a line in her acceptance speech for the Democratic Celebration’s presidential nomination final month, the place she vowed to make sure that “America, not China, wins the competitors for the twenty first century.”
In her solely main TV interview since being anointed Biden’s substitute, China didn’t characteristic in any respect on CNN’s listing of questions.
Trump, by comparability, has repeatedly tapped a vein of working-class resentment towards China. He talked about China 14 occasions in his Republican nomination acceptance speech in July, the place he blamed the world’s second-largest financial system for destroying American auto jobs and revived his “China virus” epithet concerning the COVID pandemic.
On the coverage entrance, he has stated he would impose tariffs of 60 per cent or increased on all Chinese language imports if he wins a second time period. However he has additionally expressed admiration for Xi, calling him “a superb man” and a “fierce individual” as a result of “he controls 1.4 billion folks with an iron fist”.
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Each candidates ought to have the chance to increase on their views after they face off of their first presidential debate on Tuesday (US time) in Philadelphia.
Whereas Beijing may even see little upside to the long-term route of the US-China relationship whatever the election outcome, it’s anticipated {that a} Harris administration would handle relations otherwise to a Trump administration.
Wu stated that whereas the Chinese language management can be actively making ready for both consequence, his impression was that “there may be extra concern over Trump” because of the former president’s unpredictability and the extraordinarily hawkish stance on China held by a few of his key allies within the Republican Celebration.
“Harris can be robust on China, to make sure, on the financial entrance, know-how entrance, navy entrance, and diplomatic entrance – however she can be extra predictable than Donald Trump,” he stated.
As Trump departed the presidential workplace in 2021, China imposed sanctions on 28 of his prime officers, together with outgoing Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, accusing them of “prejudice and hatred in opposition to China”.
It’s anticipated that in the event that they returned with Trump to the White Home, they might be “very private and irrational in coping with China”, Wu stated.
Yun Solar, director of the China Program on the Stimson Heart, a Washington-based suppose tank, stated there was additionally a broadly held expectation amongst analysts in each China and the US that the Harris administration would decide up the place Biden left off.
“That continuity interprets to quite a lot of competitors, however on the identical time, quite a lot of effort to handle that competitors in order that the connection is not going to derail right into a confrontation or navy battle,” Solar stated.
“That effort may be very properly obtained in China, in order that ultimately, the outcome might not be higher, however the Chinese language notion is sort of completely different”.
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In a transfer that shocked Chinese language officers hoping for a recalibration after Trump’s departure from workplace in 2021, Biden maintained and even elevated Trump-era tariffs on Chinese language imports, together with imposing a 100 per cent tariff on electrical automobiles, and expanded the listing of Chinese language corporations on a US export blacklist in a bid to chop off China’s entry to high-end AI chips and know-how.
Biden additionally sanctioned Chinese language corporations aiding Russia’s conflict efforts and stepped up America’s regional alliances with international locations similar to Australia, Japan and the Philippines to counter China’s rising affect within the Indo-Pacific.
However these measures have additionally been accompanied by extra normalised diplomatic engagement, together with common conferences between high-level officers on each side and the resumption of military-to-military communications in 2023.
Wang Yiwei, director of Renmin College’s Institute of Worldwide Affairs in Beijing and a former Chinese language diplomat, stated Harris was nonetheless a largely unknown amount on China-issues, and famous that she had by no means been to China. She did meet with Xi on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Bangkok in 2022.
“We don’t know but something that she thinks [about China], however her persona is extra mushy [than Trump’s] and we count on extra continuity of the Biden coverage,” he stated.
Trump’s isolationist method to overseas coverage has fuelled criticism from his rivals, who say he would weaken the US alliance system overseas, paving the best way for China to strengthen its world affect and superpower standing.
On Taiwan, for instance, Trump has not matched Biden’s place that the US would defend the self-governed island within the face of Chinese language aggression, and has as an alternative complained that “Taiwan doesn’t give us something”, “ought to pay us for defence” and had stolen America’s chip trade.
This stands in stark distinction to the robust assist for Taiwan amongst Republican hawks, together with Trump’s working mate J.D. Vance, who has stated: “The factor that we have to stop greater than something is a Chinese language invasion of Taiwan.”
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Some Chinese language students are fast to dismiss the idea that Beijing is hoping Trump returns.
“If Trump wins, sure, maybe the US will face some home issues. Nevertheless it doesn’t imply that China will profit from that,” stated Dr Solar Chenghao, a fellow at Tsinghua College.
As an alternative, he stated it might additional destabilise the US-China relationship as a result of Trump might look to unite home opinion by channelling antipathy in direction of China.
“We’re not certain who will be part of Trump’s cupboard and whether or not they may attempt to push Trump to have some hawkish politics in direction of Taiwan or the Chinese language mainland. I believe that can be very unsure for us to look at,” Solar stated.
Wu added: “Some folks might consider that as a result of Trump has a transactional fashion perhaps in some unspecified time in the future China could make a cope with him.”
However this was loaded with threat, he stated.
“He’s very unpredictable and generally he doesn’t care concerning the penalties of his actions. That could be a large drawback. These are two most necessary international locations on the planet – for those who take a really reckless method to this relationship that creates large threat, not just for the 2 international locations, but additionally for your entire world,” Wu stated.
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