You would possibly say that the Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder arrived forward of schedule final season, however, to basic supervisor Sam Presti, they nonetheless should earn their arrival and there has by no means been a schedule. Let’s simply say, then, that the 17-game leap the Thunder made within the standings was much more exceptional than the 16-game leap they made the earlier season. Now, the workforce that completed first within the Western Convention (and misplaced a tightly contested second-round collection) is armed with reinforcements. Josh Giddey wasn’t going to be blissful in a sixth-man function, so he’s out. In are Alex Caruso, who will play any function he’s requested at 1000% depth, and Isaiah Hartenstein, who addresses Oklahoma Metropolis’s largest weak point — and I don’t imply rebounding.
To be clear, Hartenstein will assist OKC on the glass, and a few additional possibilities undoubtedly would have come in useful in opposition to the Dallas Mavericks. If there was one motive the Thunder misplaced that collection, although, it was that they have been uncovered offensively. They misplaced their stream, slowed their tempo and allowed Dallas to dictate phrases. Hartenstein, who is instantly their finest screener and maybe their finest passer, is the type of participant who can stop this from taking place once more. OKC will nonetheless play 5-out with Hartenstein on some possessions, however, typically talking, the offense received’t look the identical when he’s on the market. Will probably be much less drive-and-kick-heavy, much less reliant on creating benefits off the dribble and, crucially, much less predictable.
Caruso matches this model of play, too. Consider him because the Thunder’s model of Derrick White, albeit with a much less dependable jumper. Provided that each he and Hartenstein are elite defenders — Caruso is already “annoying as hell” to take care of in observe, per franchise participant Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — it’s simple to pencil in OKC as the favourite out West. Growth isn’t linear, however should you assume there will probably be some pure development from Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams, it’s not even significantly troublesome to think about them profitable the entire rattling factor. In the present day, to foretell that they’ll be the 2025 champions isn’t half as daring because it was to foretell a 17-game leap this time final 12 months.
The state of play
Final 12 months: Gilgeous-Alexander was the MVP runner-up, Holmgren was the ROY runner-up and Daigneault received COY in a landslide. Within the common season, the eventual-champion Celtics have been the one workforce to high OKC’s 57-25 report or its plus-7.3 level differential. The Thunder’s fourth-ranked protection held up effectively within the playoffs, however their third-ranked offense received a bit stagnant within the second spherical in opposition to Dallas. They nearly overcame this, solely to drop Sport 6 by one level on the street after SGA fouled P.J. Washington within the nook within the remaining seconds.
The offseason: In June, OKC swapped Giddey for Caruso, then drafted a possible Giddey substitute (Nikola Subject) with the No. 12 choose. It additionally despatched New York 5 second-round picks for the No. 27 choose (Dillon Jones) and, with some extra maneuvering, nabbed the No. 38 choose (Ajay Mitchell). It’s going to be extremely troublesome for any draftee to crack this rotation for some time, although, partially as a result of, in July, the Thunder signed Hartenstein to a deal they knew the Knicks couldn’t match, then re-signed Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins on team-friendly offers.
Finest case for 2024-25: Holmgren and Williams be part of SGA within the All-Star Sport and several other distinguished podcasters make the case that Hartenstein — who averages six assists and anchors one of the best protection in NBA historical past — deserves a spot, too; with the rebounding drawback solved, the Thunder’s lack of obtrusive points turns into suspicious in itself, resulting in a nationwide dialog about how they’ll deal with adversity within the playoffs, a query they emphatically reply by storming by way of the Western Convention gauntlet with relative ease and profitable the title in what is instantly lauded as probably the most fascinating Finals since 2016.
Worst case 2024-25: The Thunder stay elite defensively, however the brand new offense by no means fairly clicks; when Presti elects to face pat on the commerce deadline, he’s accused of each making rash strikes to chase a championship too early (by buying Hartenstein and Caruso the earlier summer time) and never appearing with sufficient urgency (by failing to plug the suitable holes midseason), criticisms that he addresses throughout a seven-hour press convention following a first-round loss within the 4 vs. 5 collection.
The dialog
Thunder believer: How do different groups’ executives really feel after they have a look at this roster, salary-cap scenario and stockpile of draft picks? I genuinely can’t recall any workforce within the historical past of the NBA ever being this good and this well-positioned for the long run on the identical time. Isaiah Hartenstein and Alex Caruso are among the many most Thunder-y gamers conceivable, and Sam Presti didn’t even have to surrender any picks to get them. The vibe is paying homage to when Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden have been in OKC and the probabilities appeared limitless, however this workforce is manner higher! Have a look at the depth of expertise. Have a look at the flexibility. I’m in awe.
Thunder skeptic: Personally, I’d wait till this model of the Thunder win a playoff collection in opposition to one good workforce — the Zion-less Pelicans don’t depend, clearly — earlier than declaring them higher than the Durant-Westbrook-Harden group that went to the Finals. Don’t you are feeling such as you (and all the opposite Presti stans on the market) is likely to be a tad over-exuberant? There’s so much to be enthusiastic about, don’t get me unsuitable, however Presti himself is at all times preaching endurance. This workforce’s finest gamers are 26, 23 and 22. Why should we be in a rush to anoint them?
Thunder believer: Let me guess, you have been one of many individuals who thought all us “Presti stans” have been too excessive on OKC final 12 months, proper? It turned out we have been all too low, and that must be instructive for you: “I wish to see them show it first” isn’t just a lazy take, it’s a silly one. There is no such thing as a advantage in being tremendous late to the occasion since you’re frightened of being barely early. Sure, this workforce’s core is younger, however this workforce’s core can be extremely good, proper now, on each ends. The Thunder don’t play a helter-skelter model of basketball, and it doesn’t require some wild leap of religion to imagine they’ll win the title. The 2023-24 season made that blindingly apparent, which is why Presti made the precise sort of strikes {that a} contender ought to.
Thunder skeptic: I’m not saying it’s unhealthy to imagine within the Thunder! I’m not even essentially saying that Presti has carried out something unsuitable. Go forward and make your optimistic predictions. Simply don’t assume that that is going to be a clean upward trajectory. Please bear in mind the Durant-Westbrook-Harden workforce that you just introduced up! Please keep in mind that it felt prefer it must be a dynasty, like not less than one title was inevitable. In fact expectations must be excessive for this new era, however the hype is getting uncontrolled. There could possibly be some regression coming for a number of of the important thing guys. There could possibly be issue integrating one or each of the brand new guys. All people’s increase the Thunder proper now, and all people’s going to thrill in tearing them down if/after they stumble.
Thunder believer: Thanks for attempting to guard the Thunder from the expectations that they’ve earned, but it surely’s a bit patronizing. I guarantee you they don’t need individuals to tamp down their enthusiasm or no matter it’s you need me to do right here. What I like about them, in truth, is that they don’t appear to care what individuals outdoors of the group assume. From Presti to Mark Daigneault to, like, Cason Wallace, who had one of the mature, businesslike rookie seasons I’ve ever seen, they’re all about particular person participant improvement, forging an id as a workforce and piling up wins as a byproduct of the work they do day-after-day.
Thunder skeptic: Ugh, I didn’t notice you’d been absolutely indoctrinated by Thunder U. All I’m attempting to say is that A) profitable is difficult, particularly for younger groups, and B) I’ve some questions on this explicit younger workforce. One fairly huge query: Uh, who’s beginning? A associated query: Can Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren play collectively?
Thunder believer: I’m really a professor at Thunder U, thanks very a lot. And as such, I’d like to reply your hard-hitting questions. Relating to the beginning lineup, they’re conserving their choices open for now. Perhaps they begin one huge, possibly they begin two bigs. Personally, I’d love for this to be a fluid, matchup-based scenario. The advantage of this roster — and the factor that separates it from final 12 months’s — is that it’s constructed to resolve an array of various issues. Daigneault has at all times experimented with lineups, however the infusion of expertise this summer time permits him to experiment with kinds. That is going to be a season of discovery, and that begins with getting all people snug with Chet-at-the-4 lineups, no matter whether or not or not the Thunder begin video games that manner. As to your second query, sure, they’ll clearly play collectively. Holmgren is hardly a conventional 5, and Hartenstein isn’t some type of post-up dinosaur, both. Prepare for some sick high-low passes.
Thunder skeptic: Other than that “season of discovery” mumbo jumbo, it appears we’re lastly speaking about basketball — hooray! I don’t perceive why you assume it’s “apparent” that the 2 bigs will work effectively collectively, although. OKC had an elite offense final 12 months, largely due to their 5-out spacing. Holmgren received’t have the identical matchup benefits on the 4 that he did on the 5. After the Dallas collection, I believed, Holmgren must be a greater stretch 5 (i.e. pace up his launch, shoot from even deeper), and I didn’t for one second assume, Chet must be a 4. Earlier than he’d even performed an NBA sport, the Thunder established themselves because the league’s preeminent drive-and-kick workforce. It’s truthful to say that the driving lanes aren’t going to be the identical with Hartenstein within the paint, isn’t it? Am I allowed to assume that Mikal Bridges would have been a greater goal, or am I simply speculated to bow to probably the most good, forward-thinking entrance workplace of all-time?
Thunder believer: Holmgren nonetheless must make these enhancements, and I wager he’ll. He can even, nonetheless, continue to grow in all kinds of different methods, together with as an off-the-dribble creator. Positions are antiquated these days, so I type of remorse even referring to “Chet-at-the-4 lineups” earlier. With Hartenstein taking part in “level heart” or no matter you wish to name it when a really tall particular person operates as a hub, it should turn out to be extra obvious that Holmgren is simply an all-around expert basketball participant. You’ll see him reduce like he’s by no means reduce earlier than! That is the impact that Hartenstein — and, to some extent, Caruso, an especially underrated offensive participant — may have on the entire workforce. It’s not going to be drive-and-kick barrage anymore, since we noticed the bounds of that method in opposition to the Mavericks. It’ll be a barrage of varied actions all around the courtroom, and the protection received’t know what’s coming. Bridges is a greater participant than Hartenstein in a vacuum, and I wouldn’t have been against buying and selling a bunch of picks for him, however he wouldn’t have expanded the menu on offense this fashion.
Thunder skeptic: Perhaps the dimensions of the menu wasn’t the issue, although. Perhaps all Presti wanted to do was enhance a few elements. The Mavericks collection was a coin flip, but it surely looks like his takeaway was that the workforce wanted extra measurement, extra motion and way more passing. I admit that he might very effectively be confirmed proper, and all of this might come collectively superbly, however I’d really feel higher concerning the two bigs if the spacing round them have been pristine. Caruso is a greater shooter than Josh Giddey, however that’s not saying a lot. You noticed how Dallas handled Dort. SGA has by no means been an superior catch-and-shoot man. Isaiah Joe is the one motion shooter on the roster. I’ve little doubt that this workforce will win a ton of regular-season video games once more, however I’m simply as positive that, within the playoffs, opponents will pack the paint once more.