In American politics it’s customary to counsel that almost all voters don’t begin being attentive to the presidential election till after the Labor Day vacation weekend.
Nicely, that event – seen right here because the unofficial finish of summer time – has now been and gone. And as a noticeable chill is felt within the air, many extra voters will begin to pay attention to politics. That features the essential swing voters in a handful of carefully contested states who will in the end determine the race for the White Home.
Proper on cue, as these eyes begin to deal with the election, we have now a presidential debate that may see Donald Trump and Kamala Harris go head-to-head for the primary time. In truth, it will likely be the primary time the 2 candidates have ever met in individual. The high-stakes occasion in Philadelphia on Tuesday evening is anticipated to attract in tens of hundreds of thousands of viewers.
Many of those viewers can be getting a primary take a look at Ms Harris past the consolation of a rally stage. Earlier than she dramatically changed Joe Biden on the high of the Democratic ticket in July, Ms Harris’s nationwide profile was unusually low regardless of her serving as vice-president for nearly 4 years.
And make no mistake, her explosion on to the massive stage so late within the election cycle is very, extremely uncommon.
The conventional rhythms of American politics permit candidates to introduce themselves to the nation as they marketing campaign for his or her social gathering’s presidential nomination in main contests held a lot earlier within the 12 months. This course of weeds out those that, whereas widespread of their residence states, aren’t prepared or outfitted to take the leap on to the nationwide stage (see Ron DeSantis) and provides members important expertise at campaigning and debating.
Ms Harris did none of that this 12 months. When she ran for the Democratic nomination in 2019, she pulled out earlier than a single main vote was solid after a marketing campaign dogged by poor messaging, through which she struggled to promote her personal imaginative and prescient.
But, this time round, it seems that Ms Harris’s uncommon anonymity might actually be a secret superpower.
She has been in a position to current herself to America on her personal phrases, highlighting her comparatively humble background, her file as a prosecutor and her promise to uphold what she sees as elementary rights corresponding to entry to abortion.
Ms Harris has additionally positioned herself because the candidate of change – a recent face for the longer term – though she has been half of the present administration for nearly 4 years.
Trump is attacking her as a dangerously radical liberal. However to take action he’s counting on statements she made and insurance policies she promoted when she was competing in Democratic primaries in 2019. That’s as a result of, to win the Democratic nomination, candidates need to enchantment to extra liberal members of the social gathering earlier than then attempting to maneuver to the centre within the normal election.
On this election, Ms Harris didn’t need to compete in opposition to members of her personal social gathering to win the nomination and so had no motive to undertake extra liberal coverage positions as she did up to now.
Simply take a look at her failed bid in 2019, when she advocated for a ban on fracking and offshore drilling in addition to common free healthcare. Each concepts have been quickly dropped this time round.
In fact, we don’t know what guarantees Ms Harris would have made in a 2024 main course of, however to win the help of progressives she might properly have taken comparable positions to the above that Trump would now be utilizing to assault her. No main contest means much less ammunition for the previous president. And counting on statements his opponent made 5 years in the past, and coverage positions she has since dropped, is blunting his assaults.
This week, Ms Harris introduced tax proposals that differentiate her platform from what President Biden was promising. She is asking for a decrease tax hike than Mr Biden proposed on the funding earnings of Individuals making greater than $1 million a 12 months. That isn’t the type of concept that may have gained her help in any Democratic main vote.
There are arguably downsides to getting into the race at such a late stage, nevertheless. Competing for the nomination would have given Ms Harris extra expertise with unscripted appearances – press conferences, interviews and TV debates.
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To date, she has achieved just one broadcast interview since President Biden stepped apart and that was a joint look along with her working mate Tim Walz. That encounter on CNN wasn’t precisely a tricky interrogation, and she or he nonetheless struggled to reply what she would do on day one of many job if elected.
At her huge rallies and through her well-received speech on the Democratic Nationwide Conference final month, Ms Harris relied on a teleprompter and acquainted strains. The 90-minute debate on Tuesday can be her longest unscripted look on this marketing campaign.
Trump, who is much extra skilled on the presidential debate stage, will attempt to knock her off her ready speaking factors and do what has but to occur within the race: press Ms Harris aggressively on coverage and her altering positions.
And Ms Harris is aware of higher than anybody that the final time Trump took to the talk stage his opponent ended up leaving the race. For America’s shock presidential candidate, who has fully averted the challenges and scrutiny of a Democratic main, this debate represents a sterner check than something she has confronted to date on this pain-free marketing campaign.
North America correspondent Anthony Zurcher is smart of the race for the White Home in his weekly US Election Unspun publication. Readers within the UK can join right here. These outdoors the UK can join right here.