Nonetheless, it’s not as if the polls have been completely secure over the past two months since Harris’ entry into the race.
In late July and August, she made regular beneficial properties. These beneficial properties appear to have slowed, suggesting she’s largely consolidated her potential assist.
Any further beneficial properties received’t be simple.
If even a consensus debate victory can’t transfer the needle, it’s arduous to see what would give both candidate a significant edge within the polls over the ultimate stretch.
Right here’s the place issues stand with six weeks to go.
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The state of the race
General as of Sunday night time, Harris leads by 3 factors nationwide, in line with the Occasions’ polling common, 50 per cent to 47 per cent. As I discussed, that’s about 1 level greater than it was earlier than the controversy.
The race is even nearer in the important thing battleground states, with neither candidate main by 3 proportion factors or extra in any of the seven states likeliest to resolve the presidency. If the polls had been to remain this tight till November, it could be the primary election since 2004 when the polls had been this shut within the pivotal states.
Even so, the post-debate polls do present Harris with a slender edge. Over the previous week, greater than a dozen high-quality polls had been launched in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — and almost each one confirmed Harris tied or forward.
Harris’ finest information got here in Pennsylvania, the most important and most necessary battleground state. There, eight pollsters we label “choose,” that means greater high quality, discovered Harris forward, on common, by 2.5 factors.
The information was considerably higher for Trump in Wisconsin, the place polls from Marist and Quinnipiac discovered Harris forward by just one level.
Taking all of the polls collectively, Harris leads by 1 to 2 factors in every of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, a bunch that could be a key pathway to victory.
What if the polls are unsuitable?
After all, an fringe of 1 to 2 factors isn’t a lot of a lead in any respect.
Even in an ideal yr for pollsters, such a lead is tenuous at finest, particularly with six weeks to go. And it’s been a very long time since pollsters might unequivocally say that they had a “nice” yr, particularly in these states.
If the polls are as unsuitable as they had been in 2020 or 2022, the end result might be very completely different. Both candidate might declare a decisive victory.
Is there any cause to imagine that the polls shall be so unsuitable once more? No, not essentially.
And whereas it’d solely be a false sense of safety, the similarity between the present polling averages and the 2020 election end result makes one other monumental error appear much less probably.
It doesn’t really feel lifelike to think about Trump profitable Wisconsin by 8 factors, as an example. But it surely didn’t really feel lifelike again in 2016 to think about him profitable Wisconsin in any respect. Surprising issues occur.
The underside line, nevertheless, is straightforward: The polls are so shut that there’s no clear favorite. It will be no shock if both candidate received. And if the polls haven’t moved a lot within the wake of Harris’ debate victory, it’s honest to wonder if they’ll ever present a transparent favorite.
This text initially appeared in The New York Occasions.