WINNIPEG — It looks like Cole Perfetti ought to be signed by now.
If you’ve bought a restricted free agent donning your jersey on the NHL Participant Media Tour and representing your staff at a charity fishing occasion, it’s protected to imagine he’ll be at coaching camp, proper? And thoughts you, this isn’t like lots of the dragged-out RFA negotiations Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff has handled — the participant needs to be in Winnipeg.
“I like being in Canada. I like Winnipeg. I like the group. I like enjoying there,” Perfetti advised Sportsnet’s Luke Fox in Las Vegas.
But, two days into coaching camp, Perfetti stays unsigned.
Whereas this can be, as one NHL govt advised Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, the “nicest contract dispute ever,” it actually isn’t the best negotiation ever.
“Personally, I’d give these guys the moon. I’d like to have the power to pay them every little thing that they need and deserve,” Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff advised reporters on Thursday. “In a wage cap world, you need to make enterprise selections.”
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And in the end, Winnipeg has extra leverage right here.
Within the brief time period, the Jets can proceed with out Perfetti greater than the latter can afford to carry out of coaching camp and probably get off to a sluggish begin to the season. As we’ve seen earlier than with numerous examples — be it when William Nylander signed on Dec 1. 2019, or when Trevor Zegras signed late in coaching camp final fall — gamers who miss prolonged elements of the season or coaching camp are liable to poor years.
Frankly, Perfetti can’t afford a down yr.
The 2020 tenth general decide is coming off a curler coaster 2023-24 marketing campaign. After recording 29 factors and averaging 14:25 of ice time within the first 40 video games of the yr, Perfetti posted simply 9 factors, averaged 12:30 an evening and endured a 15-game level drought by way of late January and all of February. Positive, he set career-highs in objectives (19) and factors (38) however given the way in which the primary half of the season went, these level totals ought to’ve been larger.
So, what’s the holdup in contract talks?
For one, Perfetti in all probability needs to really feel appreciated. Not solely did Rick Bowness shortly abandon the mission of getting him as a centre just some video games into the yr, however the Jets additionally didn’t give him a lot runway to get again into the lineup as soon as he discovered his rhythm within the spring. It should sting while you’re a wholesome scratch in 4 of your staff’s 5 playoff video games regardless of recording six factors in your final six common season contests.
Perfetti’s camp might be pulling loads of ‘coulda, woulda, shoulda’ with these negotiations. Preaching that, if Perfetti had extra of a chance, he would’ve produced at a better clip. However for all of the upside he has, Perfetti hasn’t demonstrated sufficient to warrant the kind of payday he’s reportedly eyeing (extra on that, in a bit).
And that’s the crux of why the Jets are enjoying hardball. To grasp issues higher, you’ve bought to know the market. Let’s check out some two-year bridge comparables.
Beneath is an inventory of six gamers with related manufacturing to Perfetti earlier than inking a two-year bridge deal. Observe: We’re solely gamers who, like Perfetti, don’t have arbitration rights.
On the latest episode of 32 Ideas: The Podcast, Friedman identified that Shane Pinto and Cole Perfetti’s manufacturing has been fairly related, though he doesn’t consider Winnipeg needs handy out a $3.75 million AAV to Perfetti. And so they shouldn’t. If Perfetti’s camp is certainly utilizing Pinto’s contract as a comparable, the Jets are sensible to push again. Positive, the 2 have recorded practically similar point-per-game outputs all through their careers, however Pinto proved himself as a top-six centre who could make an affect at each ends of the ice final season. Perfetti, alternatively, was a middle-six winger.
As you possibly can see, over the previous couple of years, gamers of Perfetti’s ilk have earned nearer to $3 million — not $4 million — on a two-year bridge deal. Plus, as soon as the New Jersey Devils re-sign Dawson Mercer — which they’re supposedly near doing — Perfetti’s leverage will shrink much more. He received’t have a leg to face on if he asks for more cash than a participant with two 20-plus objective campaigns and a 56-point season beneath his belt. And odds are, on condition that he’s primarily been deployed as a winger, Mercer will likely be making lower than Pinto.
Perfetti’s camp can preach upside and potential all they need however in contract negotiations — the place comparables are king — all of it comes right down to the numbers.
Now, talking of numbers, what about the advantages of locking up Perfetti long-term? With the cap set to rise, one might suppose that inking Perfetti to a prolonged pact that’d cowl his prime years can be a sensible transfer. However actually, it’s higher in principle than it’s essentially. Perfetti hasn’t confirmed sufficient to warrant a long-term extension.
There’s a sizeable hole between Perfetti and the gamers above. Tim Stutzle, the 2020 third general decide, signed an eight-year pact after scoring 58 factors as a young person. Lucas Raymond and Seth Jarvis secured the bag after posting 70-plus and 60-plus factors respectively. Quinton Byfield recorded 55 factors final yr and was a fixture in Los Angeles’ top-six. And Anton Lundell, whose common season manufacturing is in-line with Perfetti, recorded 17 factors in 24 playoff video games this previous spring. All of these aforementioned accomplishments are benefit to banking on a participant being value big-time cash at such a younger age.
We nonetheless don’t know what Perfetti is, but. The 5-foot-11 ahead is extraordinarily cerebral and a very good distributor, nevertheless, he’s bought only one totally wholesome NHL season beneath his belt. We noticed flashes of his brilliance final season however in the end, proper or unsuitable, he wasn’t ok to be trusted when it mattered most.
That’s to not say Perfetti can’t be a fixture for the Jets within the lengthy and brief time period. However taking a bet on him, at this stage of his profession, simply isn’t value it for the Jets.
And so we wait. However the longer this drags on, it’s Perfetti who has essentially the most to lose.