The Buffalo Payments have received 4 consecutive video games towards the Miami Dolphins and can attempt to make it 5 straight on Thursday Evening Soccer in Week 2. Nonetheless, the Payments opened as 1-1.5-point underdogs, and the road has since moved to +2.5 at many sportsbooks.
Miami might have secured the staff’s first division title because the 2008 season with a win over the Payments in Week 18 final yr, however misplaced 21-14.
ODDS AND TRENDS
Miami opened as a slight favourite for this key early season division battle at -1. However the line has moved in favor of the Dolphins, who are actually consensus 2.5-point favorites. Three of the previous 5 matchups have been determined by a area objective or much less, together with Miami’s final win in September 2022, 21-19.
The Dolphins are attracting extra of the deal with (68 %) than the Payments (32 %) from bettors placing cash on the purpose unfold. Extra bettors are getting behind Miami to win outright, with 70 % of the deal with and 66 % of moneyline bets on the Dolphins.
That leaves 30 % of the cash and 34 % of moneyline bets on the Payments to win outright.
BetRivers has seen a better share of cash (76 %) and tickets (70 %) on Miami’s unfold. The e-book’s moneyline numbers additionally favor the Dolphins, with 56 % of the deal with and 52 % of tickets on Miami.
The general public is hoping for a high-scoring contest with 66 % of the deal with and 75 % of the tickets backing the Over.
Betting with the general public was the way in which to go early within the season final yr. The general public went 13-3 ATS in Week 1 and had a successful file in 5 of the primary seven weeks. Final week, the general public was 5-7-1 on Sunday.
PROP PICKS
–Tyreek Hill Anytime TD (-120 at DraftKings): Hill bought off to a stable begin final season with 4 touchdowns in his first three video games and not less than one in seven of the primary eight. With Raheem Mostert out and Devon Achane nursing an damage, the chance Hill will get in the long run zone is fairly good. He had one landing in two video games vs. the Payments final season.
–Hill Over 6.5 Receptions (-138 at FanDuel): He had seven final week regardless of the offense getting off to a gradual begin. With the staff’s prime operating backs out or hurting, Miami is sure to throw extra, which is able to most likely imply extra targets for Hill. He had three within the Oct. 1 sport vs. the Payments final season and 7 within the regular-season finale.
KEY STATS
Josh Allen has loved a number of success towards the Dolphins, successful 11 of 12, scoring 35+ factors per, and producing over 400 yards of offense in every sport. He has thrown 36 landing passes towards the Dolphins (since 2018), probably the most by any QB within the league vs. a single opponent.
THE NEWS
Not solely has Payments quarterback Josh Allen dominated the Dolphins since getting drafted in 2018, but when MVPs have been awarded based mostly on simply video games towards the Dolphins, Allen would have a home stuffed with {hardware}.
When the Payments performed host to the Dolphins in Week 4 final season, Allen accomplished 84 % of his passes for 320 yards and 4 touchdowns. Only for good measure, he tacked on one other landing on the bottom. With the division title on the road in Week 18, Allen was 30-38 for 359 yards and two touchdowns.
Had he not thrown two interceptions, one in every of which led to a landing for Miami, the sport wouldn’t have been as shut because the rating (21-14) would point out.
Nonetheless, the highway could also be a bit difficult for the Payments this week. Allen not has a respectable No. 1 receiver because the Payments traded Stefon Diggs to Houston through the offseason. He accomplished 78 % of his passes final week for 232 yards and two touchdowns. Amongst his 18 completions, Allen related with 9 totally different receivers.
Achane rushed for 101 yards and two scores in final season’s Week 4 matchup. If he is unable to play, the run sport should be high quality. Jeff Wilson Jr. rushed for 45 yards on 9 carries in Week 18 final season.
INJURY REPORT
Mostert has been dominated out with a chest damage, whereas Achane missed follow on Monday and Tuesday with an ankle damage. His official standing is questionable, together with that of WR Malik Washington, LB Jaelan Philips, CB Jalen Ramsey, and OT Liam Eichenberg. Achane is taken into account a game-time resolution.
Buffalo Payments DE Javon Solomon is listed as uncertain (indirect). However fellow DE Dawuane Smoot has been dominated out (toe) together with CB Taron Jackson (forearm).
PREDICTION
Miami’s offense can have day towards Buffalo’s protection. The Dolphins could not cease Allen final yr, however they did sack him 5 occasions and intercepted him twice. Allen has thrown seven interceptions towards Miami, his most to 1 staff.
Whether or not this one is shut will depend upon whether or not the Dolphins can recover from Allen’s previous dominance. The Payments’ offense shouldn’t be the powerhouse of the previous few years. If Miami brings its “A” sport, the Dolphins can snap their shedding streak on this rivalry.
Prediction: Payments 28, Dolphins 31
–Travis Pulver, Discipline Stage Media