A distinguished presidential historian, Dr Allan Lichtman, has reiterated his prediction that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election in opposition to former President Donald Trump, dismissing considerations about an “October shock” affecting the result.
Dr Lichtman, a professor at American College and famend for precisely forecasting 9 of the final ten US elections, made his prediction early in September.
In an interview with CNN’s Michael Smerconish, Dr Lichtman acknowledged, “One of many best myths of American politics is the October shock. I’ve by no means modified my prediction in response to an October shock as a result of the keys gauge the large image of incumbent governance in power and do not sway by the occasions of the marketing campaign.”
Dr Lichtman’s “keys” discuss with a system of 13 classes he makes use of to evaluate every candidate’s viability for the presidency. In September, he stated Mrs Harris holds a bonus in eight of the 13 keys, whereas Trump secured three.
Traditionally, Dr Lichtman’s assertion concerning the insignificance of “October surprises” is supported by precedent. Within the lead-up to the 2016 election, a leaked “Entry Hollywood” tape revealed Trump making controversial remarks about ladies. Regardless of the fallout, Trump finally received the election, a prediction Lichtman had made based mostly on his key system.
“I’ve by no means modified a prediction in 40 years, and I am not doing it now,” Lichtman affirmed. The scholar, who identifies as a registered Democrat, claims to have precisely predicted the result of each presidential race since 1984. Nonetheless, some critics spotlight inconsistencies in his rationale over time, notably relating to the 2000 and 2016 elections.
Regardless of his unwavering forecast for Harris, Dr Lichtman emphasised the significance of voter participation. “The end result is as much as you, so get out and vote,” he urged.
Latest polling information reveals Mrs Harris with a slender lead over Donald Trump, holding a two-percentage level benefit in multi-candidate polls, in accordance with the most recent RealClearPolitics combination.
Because the election approaches, all eyes can be on whether or not Dr Lichtman’s predictions maintain true.